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The Peak Structure and Future Changes of the Relationships Between Extreme Precipitation and TemperatureTheoretical models predict that, in the absence of moisture limitation, extreme precipitation intensity could exponentially increase with temperatures at a rate determined by the Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relationship. Climate models project a continuous increase of precipitation extremes for the twenty-first century over most of the globe. However, some station observations suggest a negative scaling of extreme precipitation with very high temperatures, raising doubts about future increase of precipitation extremes. Here we show for the present-day climate over most of the globe,the curve relating daily precipitation extremes with local temperatures has a peak structure, increasing as expected at the low medium range of temperature variations but decreasing at high temperatures. However, this peak-shaped relationship does not imply a potential upper limit for future precipitation extremes. Climate models project both the peak of extreme precipitation and the temperature at which it peaks (T(sub peak)) will increase with warming; the two increases generally conform to the C-C scaling rate in mid- and high-latitudes,and to a super C-C scaling in most of the tropics. Because projected increases of local mean temperature (T(sub mean)) far exceed projected increases of T(sub peak) over land, the conventional approach of relating extreme precipitation to T(sub mean) produces a misleading sub-C-C scaling rate.
Document ID
20170003306
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
External Source(s)
Authors
Wang, Guiling
(Connecticut Univ. Storrs, CT, United States)
Wang, Dagang
(Connecticut Univ. Storrs, CT, United States)
Trenberth, Kevin E.
(National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, CO, United States)
Erfanian, Amir
(Connecticut Univ. Storrs, CT, United States)
Yu, Miao
(Connecticut Univ. Storrs, CT, United States)
Bosilovich, Michael G.
(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD United States)
Parr, Dana T.
(Connecticut Univ. Storrs, CT, United States)
Date Acquired
April 11, 2017
Publication Date
March 6, 2017
Publication Information
Publication: NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
Volume: 7
Issue: 4
ISSN: 1758-678X
e-ISSN: 1758-6798
Subject Category
Earth Resources And Remote Sensing
Meteorology And Climatology
Report/Patent Number
GSFC-E-DAA-TN39945
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other
Keywords
Clausius–Clapeyron
C-C scaling

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