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The Radial Speed-Expansion Speed Relation for Earth-Directed CMEsEarth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the main drivers of major geomagnetic storms. Therefore, a good estimate of the disturbance arrival time at Earth is required for space weather predictions. The STEREO and SOHO spacecraft were viewing the Sun in near quadrature during January 2010 to September 2012, providing a unique opportunity to study the radial speed (V (sub rad)) to expansion speed(V (sub exp)) relationship of Earth-directed CMEs. This relationship is useful in estimating the V (sub rad) of Earth-directed CMEs, when they are observed from Earth view only. We selected 19 Earth-directed CMEs observed by the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO)/C3 coronagraph on SOHO and the Sun Earth Connection Coronal and Heliospheric Investigation (SECCHI)/COR2 coronagraph on STEREO during January 2010 to September 2012. We found that of the three tested geometric CME models the full ice-cream cone model of the CME describes best the V (sub rad) to V (sub exp) relationship, as suggested by earlier investigations. We also tested the prediction accuracy of the empirical shock arrival (ESA) model proposed by Gopalswamy et al.(2005a), while estimating the CME propagation speeds from the CME expansion speeds. If we use STEREO observations to estimate the CME width required to calculate the V (sub rad) from the V (sub exp) measurements, the mean absolute error (MAE) of the shock arrival times of the ESA model is 8.4 hours. If the LASCO measurements are used to estimate the CME width, the MAE still remains below 17 hours. Therefore, by using the simple V (sub rad) to V (sub exp) relationship to estimate the V (sub rad) of the Earth-directed CMEs, the ESA model is able to predict the shock arrival times with accuracy comparable to most other more complex models.
Document ID
20170003732
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
External Source(s)
Authors
Makela, P.
(Catholic Univ. of America Washington, DC, United States)
Gopalswamy, N.
(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD United States)
Yashiro, S.
(Catholic Univ. of America Washington, DC, United States)
Date Acquired
April 20, 2017
Publication Date
May 25, 2016
Publication Information
Publication: Space Weather
Publisher: AGU Publications
Volume: 14
Issue: 5
ISSN: 1542-7390
e-ISSN: 1542-7390
Subject Category
Solar Physics
Report/Patent Number
GSFC-E-DAA-TN40996
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: NSF-AGS-1358274
CONTRACT_GRANT: NNG11PL10A
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other

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