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Skillful Spring Forecasts of September Arctic Sea Ice Extent Using Passive Microwave DataIn this study, we demonstrate skillful spring forecasts of detrended September Arctic sea ice extent using passive microwave observations of sea ice concentration (SIC) and melt onset (MO). We compare these to forecasts produced using data from a sophisticated melt pond model, and find similar to higher skill values, where the forecast skill is calculated relative to linear trend persistence. The MO forecasts shows the highest skill in March-May, while the SIC forecasts produce the highest skill in June-August, especially when the forecasts are evaluated over recent years (since 2008). The high MO forecast skill in early spring appears to be driven primarily by the presence and timing of open water anomalies, while the high SIC forecast skill appears to be driven by both open water and surface melt processes. Spatial maps of detrended anomalies highlight the drivers of the different forecasts, and enable us to understand regions of predictive importance. Correctly capturing sea ice state anomalies, along with changes in open water coverage appear to be key processes in skillfully forecasting summer Arctic sea ice.
Document ID
20170007774
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
External Source(s)
Authors
Petty, A. A.
(Maryland Univ. College Park, MD, United States)
Schroder, D.
(Reading Univ. United Kingdom)
Stroeve, J. C.
(Colorado Univ. Boulder, CO, United States)
Markus, Thorsten
(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD United States)
Miller, Jeffrey A.
(Wyle Information Systems, LLC Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Kurtz, Nathan Timothy
(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD United States)
Feltham, D. L.
(Reading Univ. United Kingdom)
Flocco, D.
(Reading Univ. United Kingdom)
Date Acquired
August 17, 2017
Publication Date
February 27, 2017
Publication Information
Publication: Earth's Future
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Volume: 5
Issue: 2
e-ISSN: 2328-4277
Subject Category
Meteorology And Climatology
Statistics And Probability
Oceanography
Report/Patent Number
GSFC-E-DAA-TN45592
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: NNG12PL17C
CONTRACT_GRANT: NNX17AE79A
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other
Keywords
melt onset
melt
passive microwave
sea ice
Arctic

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