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Future Global Mortality from Changes in Air Pollution Attributable to Climate ChangeGround-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM (sub 2.5)) are associated with premature human mortality; their future concentrations depend on changes in emissions, which dominate the near-term, and on climate change. Previous global studies of the air-quality-related health effects of future climate change used single atmospheric models. However, in related studies, mortality results differ among models. Here we use an ensemble of global chemistry-climate models to show that premature mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change, under the high greenhouse gas scenario RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 8.5, is probably positive. We estimate 3,340 (30,300 to 47,100) ozone-related deaths in 2030, relative to 2000 climate, and 43,600 (195,000 to 237,000) in 2100 (14 percent of the increase in global ozone-related mortality). For PM (sub 2.5), we estimate 55,600 (34,300 to 164,000) deaths in 2030 and 215,000 (76,100 to 595,000) in 2100 (countering by 16 percent the global decrease in PM (sub 2.5)-related mortality). Premature mortality attributable to climate change is estimated to be positive in all regions except Africa, and is greatest in India and East Asia. Most individual models yield increased mortality from climate change, but some yield decreases, suggesting caution in interpreting results from a single model. Climate change mitigation is likely to reduce air-pollution-related mortality.
Document ID
20170007838
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
External Source(s)
Authors
Silva, Raquel A. (North Carolina Univ. Chapel Hill, NC, United States)
West, J. Jason (North Carolina Univ. Chapel Hill, NC, United States)
Lamarque, Jean-Francois (National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, CO, United States)
Shindell, Drew T. (Duke Univ. Durham, NC, United States)
Collins, William J. (Reading Univ. United Kingdom)
Faluvegi, Greg (Columbia Univ. New York, NY, United States)
Folberth, Gerd A. (MET Office (Meteorological Office) Exeter, United Kingdom)
Horowitz, Larry W. (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Princeton, NJ, United States)
Nagashima, Tatsuya (National Inst. for Environmental Studies Tsukuba, Japan)
Naik, Vaishali (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Princeton, NJ, United States)
Rumbold, Steven T. (Reading Univ. United Kingdom)
Sudo, Kengo (Nagoya Univ. Nagoya, Japan)
Takemura, Toshihiko (Kyushu Sangyo Univ. Fukuoka, Japan)
Bergmann, Daniel (Lawrence Livermore National Lab. Livermore, CA, United States)
Cameron-Smith, Philip (Lawrence Livermore National Lab. Livermore, CA, United States)
Doherty, Ruth M. (Edinburgh Univ. United Kingdom)
Josse, Beatrice (Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques Toulouse, France)
MacKenzie, Ian A. (Edinburgh Univ. United Kingdom)
Stevenson, David S. (Edinburgh Univ. United Kingdom)
Zeng, Guang (National Inst. of Water and Atmospheric Research Wellington, New Zealand)
Date Acquired
August 18, 2017
Publication Date
July 31, 2017
Publication Information
ISSN: 1758-678X
Subject Category
Meteorology and Climatology
Aerospace Medicine
Report/Patent Number
GSFC-E-DAA-TN45405
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: EU-641816
CONTRACT_GRANT: UKNERC-NE-I008063-1
CONTRACT_GRANT: LLNL-DE-AC52-07NA27344
CONTRACT_GRANT: NNX14AB99A
CONTRACT_GRANT: NERSC-DE-AC02-05CH11231
CONTRACT_GRANT: NIEHS-1-R21-ES022600-01
CONTRACT_GRANT: UK-BEIS-GA01101
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other
Keywords
Atmohspheric chemistry
Environmental health
Environmental impact