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Temperature Increase Reduces Global Yields of Major Crops in Four Independent EstimatesWheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multi-method analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.
Document ID
20170008493
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
External Source(s)
Authors
Zhao, Chuang
(Peking Univ. Beijing, China)
Liu, Bing
(Nanjing Agricultural Univ. China)
Piao, Shilong
(Peking Univ. Beijing, China)
Wang, Xuhui
(Peking Univ. Beijing, China)
Lobell, David B.
(Stanford Univ. Stanford, CA, United States)
Huang, Yao
(Stanford Univ. Stanford, CA, United States)
Huang, Mengtian
(Peking Univ. Beijing, China)
Yao, Yitong
(Peking Univ. Beijing, China)
Bassu, Simona
(Sassari Univ. Italy)
Ciais, Philippe
(Universite de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines Versailles, France)
Durand, Jean-Louis
(Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique Montpellier, France)
Elliott, Joshua
(Chicago Univ. Chicago, IL, United States)
Ewert, Frank
(Bonn Univ. Germany)
Janssens, Ivan A.
(Antwerp Univ. Wilrijk, Belgium)
Li, Tao
(International Rice Research Inst. Manila, Philippines)
Lin, Erda
(Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Beijing, China)
Liu, Qiang
(Peking Univ. Beijing, China)
Martre, Pierre
(Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique Montpellier, France)
Muller, Christoph
(Potsdam-Inst. fuer Klimafolgenforschung Potsdam, Germany)
Peng, Shushi
(Peking Univ. Beijing, China)
Penuelas, Josep
(Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain)
Ruane, Alex C.
(NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies New York, NY, United States)
Wallach, Daniel
(Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique Montpellier, France)
Wang, Tao
(Academia Sinica Beijing, China)
Wu, Donghai
(Peking Univ. Beijing, China)
Liu, Zhuo
(Peking Univ. Beijing, China)
Zhu, Yan
(Nanjing Agricultural Univ. China)
Zhu, Zaichun
(Peking Univ. Beijing, China)
Asseng, Senthold
(Florida Univ. Gainesville, FL, United States)
Date Acquired
September 5, 2017
Publication Date
August 15, 2017
Publication Information
Publication: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Publisher: National Academy of Sciences
Volume: 114
Issue: 35
ISSN: 1091-6490
Subject Category
Meteorology And Climatology
Report/Patent Number
GSFC-E-DAA-TN46213
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: NSFC 41561134016
CONTRACT_GRANT: DFG EW 119/5-1
CONTRACT_GRANT: BMBF 01LN1317A
CONTRACT_GRANT: BMEL 2815ERA01J
CONTRACT_GRANT: NSFC 41530528
CONTRACT_GRANT: (863) 2013AA102404
CONTRACT_GRANT: ERC-SyG-2013-610028
CONTRACT_GRANT: 111 B16026
CONTRACT_GRANT: 111 B14001
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other

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