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Using Data Assimilation Methods of Prediction of Solar ActivityThe variable solar magnetic activity known as the 11-year solar cycle has the longest history of solar observations. These cycles dramatically affect conditions in the heliosphere and the Earth's space environment. Our current understanding of the physical processes that make up global solar dynamics and the dynamo that generates the magnetic fields is sketchy, resulting in unrealistic descriptions in theoretical and numerical models of the solar cycles. The absence of long-term observations of solar interior dynamics and photospheric magnetic fields hinders development of accurate dynamo models and their calibration. In such situations, mathematical data assimilation methods provide an optimal approach for combining the available observational data and their uncertainties with theoretical models in order to estimate the state of the solar dynamo and predict future cycles. In this presentation, we will discuss the implementation and performance of an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method based on the Parker migratory dynamo model, complemented by the equation of magnetic helicity conservation and long-term sunspot data series. This approach has allowed us to reproduce the general properties of solar cycles and has already demonstrated a good predictive capability for the current cycle, 24. We will discuss further development of this approach, which includes a more sophisticated dynamo model, synoptic magnetogram data, and employs the DART Data Assimilation Research Testbed.
Document ID
20170011530
Document Type
Presentation
Authors
Kitiashvili, Irina N.
(Bay Area Environmental Research Inst. Moffett Field, CA, United States)
Collins, Nancy S.
(National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, CO, United States)
Date Acquired
December 6, 2017
Publication Date
July 24, 2017
Subject Category
Aeronautics (General)
Solar Physics
Report/Patent Number
ARC-E-DAA-TN45136
Meeting Information
Solar Heliospheric & Interplanetary Environment (SHINE) 2017 Workshop(Saint-Sauveur, Quebec)
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: NNX12AD05A
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Public Use Permitted.
Keywords
Prediction
Data Assilimilation
Solar Activity

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