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Threats to North American Forests from Southern Pine Beetle with Warming Winters
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Author and Affiliation:
Lesk, Corey(Columbia Univ., Center for Climate Systems Research, New York, NY, United States)
Coffel, Ethan(Columbia Univ., Dept. of Earth & Environmental Sciences, New York, NY, United States)
D'Amato, Anthony W.(Vermont Univ., Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, Burlington, VT, United States)
Dodds, Kevin(Northeastern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Newtown Square, PA, United States)
Horton, Radley M.(Columbia Univ., Center for Climate Systems Research, New York, NY, United States)
Abstract: In coming decades, warmer winters are likely to lift range constraints on many cold-limited forest insects. Recent unprecedented expansion of the southern pine beetle (SPB, Dendroctonus frontalis) into New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, and Massachusetts in concert with warming annual temperature minima highlights the risk that this insect pest poses to the pine forests of the northern United States and Canada under continued climate change. Here we present the first projections of northward expansion in SPB-suitable climates using a statistical bioclimatic range modeling approach and current-generation general circulation model (GCM) output under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emissions scenarios. Our results show that by the middle of the 21st century, the climate is likely to be suitable for SPB expansion into vast areas of previously unaffected forests throughout the northeastern United States and into southeastern Canada. This scenario would pose a significant economic and ecological risk to the affected regions, including disruption oflocal ecosystem services, dramatic shifts in forest structure, and threats to native biodiversity.
Publication Date: Dec 12, 2016
Document ID:
20170012143
(Acquired Dec 21, 2017)
Subject Category: METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY; LIFE SCIENCES (GENERAL)
Report/Patent Number: GSFC-E-DAA-TN38235
Document Type: Oral/Visual Presentation
Meeting Information: AGU Fall Meeting 2016; 12-16 Dec. 2016; San Francisco, CA; United States
Meeting Sponsor: American Geophysical Union; Washington, DC, United States
Contract/Grant/Task Num: NNX14AB99A
Financial Sponsor: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Greenbelt, MD, United States
Organization Source: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Greenbelt, MD, United States
Description: 18p; In English
Distribution Limits: Unclassified; Publicly available; Unlimited
Rights: Copyright; Public use permitted
NASA Terms: FORESTS; BEETLES; ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; GLOBAL WARMING; CLIMATE CHANGE; PREDICTIONS; ATMOSPHERIC MODELS; CLIMATE MODELS; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS; UNCERTAIN SYSTEMS; BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY; WINTER; CANADA; UNITED STATES; NORTH AMERICA
Other Descriptors: SOUTHERN PINE BEETLE; CLIMATE CHANGE; RISK; UNPRECEDENTED EXPANSION; NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES; SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
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