Building Reliable Forecasts of Solar ActivitySolar ionizing radiation critically depends on the level of the Sun’s magnetic activity. For robust physics-based forecasts, we employ the procedure of data assimilation, which combines theoretical modeling and observational data such that uncertainties in both the model and the observations are taken into account. Currently we are working in two major directions: 1) development of a new long-term forecast procedure on time-scales of the 11-year solar cycle, using a 2-dimensional mean-field dynamo model and synoptic magnetograms; 2) development of 3-dimensional radiative MHD (Magnetohydrodynamic) simulations to investigate the origin and precursors of local manifestations of magnetic activity, such as the formation of magnetic structures and eruptive dynamics.
Document ID
20170012221
Acquisition Source
Ames Research Center
Document Type
Presentation
Authors
Kitiashvili, Irina (Bay Area Environmental Research Inst. Moffett Field, CA, United States)
Wray, Alan (NASA Ames Research Center Moffett Field, CA, United States)
Mansour, Nagi (NASA Ames Research Center Moffett Field, CA, United States)