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Building Reliable Forecasts of Solar Activity
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Author and Affiliation:
Kitiashvili, Irina(Bay Area Environmental Research Inst., Moffett Field, CA, United States)
Wray, Alan(NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA, United States)
Mansour, Nagi(NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA, United States)
Abstract: Solar ionizing radiation critically depends on the level of the Sun’s magnetic activity. For robust physics-based forecasts, we employ the procedure of data assimilation, which combines theoretical modeling and observational data such that uncertainties in both the model and the observations are taken into account. Currently we are working in two major directions: 1) development of a new long-term forecast procedure on time-scales of the 11-year solar cycle, using a 2-dimensional mean-field dynamo model and synoptic magnetograms; 2) development of 3-dimensional radiative MHD (Magnetohydrodynamic) simulations to investigate the origin and precursors of local manifestations of magnetic activity, such as the formation of magnetic structures and eruptive dynamics.
Publication Date: Nov 06, 2017
Document ID:
20170012221
(Acquired Dec 19, 2017)
Subject Category: SOLAR PHYSICS
Report/Patent Number: ARC-E-DAA-TN48921
Document Type: Oral/Visual Presentation
Meeting Information: Radiation Characterization Workshop; 6-8 Nov. 2017; Moffett Field, CA; United States
Meeting Sponsor: NASA Ames Research Center; Moffett Field, CA, United States
Contract/Grant/Task Num: NNX12AD05A
Financial Sponsor: NASA Ames Research Center; Moffett Field, CA, United States
Organization Source: NASA Ames Research Center; Moffett Field, CA, United States
Description: 2p; In English
Distribution Limits: Unclassified; Publicly available; Unlimited
Rights: Copyright; Public use permitted
NASA Terms: SOLAR ACTIVITY; FORECASTING; SOLAR RADIATION; SOLAR MAGNETIC FIELD; MAGNETIC FIELD CONFIGURATIONS; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; SOLAR CYCLES; SPACE WEATHER; MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMIC SIMULATION; MAGNETIC VARIATIONS
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Last Modified: December 19, 2017
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