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Comparing Proxy and Model Estimates of Hydroclimate Variability and Change over the Common EraWater availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited because of a paucity of modern instrumental observations that are distributed unevenly across the globe and only span parts of the 20th and 21st centuries. Such data coverage is insufficient for characterizing hydroclimate and its associated dynamics because of its multidecadal to centennial variability and highly regionalized spatial signature. High-resolution (seasonal to decadal) hydroclimatic proxies that span all or parts of the Common Era (CE) and paleoclimate simulations from climate models are therefore important tools for augmenting our understanding of hydroclimate variability. In particular, the comparison of the two sources of information is critical for addressing the uncertainties and limitations of both while enriching each of their interpretations. We review the principal proxy data available for hydroclimatic reconstructions over the CE and highlight the contemporary understanding of how these proxies are interpreted as hydroclimate indicators. We also review the available last-millennium simulations from fully coupled climate models and discuss several outstanding challenges associated with simulating hydroclimate variability and change over the CE. A specific review of simulated hydroclimatic changes forced by volcanic events is provided, as is a discussion of expected improvements in estimated radiative forcings, models, and their implementation in the future. Our review of hydroclimatic proxies and last-millennium model simulations is used as the basis for articulating a variety of considerations and best practices for how to perform proxy-model comparisons of CE hydroclimate. This discussion provides a framework for how best to evaluate hydroclimate variability and its associated dynamics using these comparisons and how they can better inform interpretations of both proxy data and model simulations.We subsequently explore means of using proxy-model comparisons to better constrain and characterize future hydroclimate risks. This is explored specifically in the context of several examples that demonstrate how proxy-model comparisons can be used to quantitatively constrain future hydroclimatic risks as estimated from climate model projections.
Document ID
20180000565
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
External Source(s)
Authors
Smerdon, Jason E.
(Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Palisades, NY, United States)
Luterbacher, Jurg
(Justus Liebig-Univ. Giessen, Germany)
Phipps, Steven J.
(Tasmania Univ. Hobart, Australia)
Anchukaitis, Kevin J.
(Arizona Univ. Tucson, AZ, United States)
Ault, Toby
(Cornell Univ. Ithaca, NY, United States)
Coats, Sloan
(Colorado Univ. Boulder, CO, United States)
Cobb, Kim M.
(Georgia Inst. of Tech. Atlanta, GA, United States)
Cook, Benjamin I.
(NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies New York, NY, United States)
Colose, Chris
(Universities Space Research Association Columbia, MD, United States)
Felis, Thomas
(Bremen Univ. Germany)
Gallant, Ailie
(Monash Univ. Melbourne, Australia)
Jungclaus, Johann H.
(Max-Planck-Inst. fuer Meteorologie Hamburg, Germany)
Konecky, Bronwen
(Colorado Univ. Boulder, CO, United States)
LeGrande, Allegra
(NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies New York, NY, United States)
Lewis, Sophie
(Australian National Univ. Canberra, Australia)
Lopatka, Alex S.
(Maryland Univ. College Park, MD, United States)
Man, Wenmin
(Institute of Atmospheric Physics Beijing, China)
Mankin, Justin S.
(NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies New York, NY, United States)
Maxwell, Justin T.
(Indiana Univ. Bloomington, IN, United States)
Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.
(Colorado Univ. Boulder, CO, United States)
Partin, Judson W.
(Texas Univ. Austin, TX, United States)
Singh, Deepti
(Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Palisades, NY, United States)
Steiger, Nathan J.
(Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Palisades, NY, United States)
Stevenson, Samantha
(Colorado Univ. Boulder, CO, United States)
Tierney, Jessica E.
(Arizona Univ. Tucson, AZ, United States)
Zanchettin, Davide
(Venice Univ. Italy)
Zhang, Huan
(Justus Liebig-Univ. Giessen, Germany)
Atwood , Alyssa R.
(Georgia Inst. of Tech. Atlanta, GA, United States)
Andreu-Hayles, Laia
(Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Palisades, NY, United States)
Baek, Seung H.
(Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Palisades, NY, United States)
Buckley, Brendan
(Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Palisades, NY, United States)
Cook, Edward R.
(Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Palisades, NY, United States)
D’Arrigo, Rosanne
(Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Palisades, NY, United States)
Dee, Sylvia G.
(Brown Univ. Providence, RI, United States)
Griffiths, Michael L.
(William Patterson Coll. of New Jersey Wayne, NJ, United States)
Kulkarni, Charuta
(City Univ. of New York New York, NY, United States)
Kushnir, Yochanan
(Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Palisades, NY, United States)
Lehner, Flavio
(Colorado Univ. Boulder, CO, United States)
Leland, Caroline
(Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Palisades, NY, United States)
Linderholm, Hans W.
(Gothenburg Univ. Sweden)
Okazaki, Atsushi
(Tokyo Univ. Chiba, Japan)
Palmer, Jonathan
(New South Wales Univ. Sydney, Australia)
Piovano, Eduardo
(Universidad Nacional de Cordoba Argentina)
Raible, Christoph C.
(Bern Univ. Bern, Switzerland)
Rao, Mukund P.
(Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Palisades, NY, United States)
Scheff, Jacob
(Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Palisades, NY, United States)
Schmidt, Gavin A.
(NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies New York, NY, United States)
Seager, Richard
(Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Palisades, NY, United States)
Widmann, Martin
(Birmingham Univ. United Kingdom)
Williams, A. Park
(Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Palisades, NY, United States)
Xoplaki, Elena
(Justus Liebig-Univ. Giessen, Germany)
Date Acquired
January 17, 2018
Publication Date
December 20, 2017
Publication Information
Publication: Climate of the Past
Publisher: Copernicus
Volume: 13
Issue: 12
e-ISSN: 1814-9332
Subject Category
Meteorology And Climatology
Report/Patent Number
GSFC-E-DAA-TN50993
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: NNH15CO48B
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other
Keywords
Common Era
hydroclimate variability
Simulation
Climate
paleoclimate model simulations

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