The Probability of False Go/No-Go Determined by GOES Proton Flux: Proposed Launch Constraints for Avoiding Damaging Solar Energetic Particle Events

The space environment is full of harmful radiation and high energy particles that can cause damage to materials and affect computer systems by e.g., single event effects (SEEs), total ionizing dose (TID), etc. There are three main sources of high energy particles: Trapped radiation in Earth's Van Allen belts (electrons and protons); Solar energetic particles (SEPs) (protons and heavy ions); Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) (protons and heavy ions). In this study, we focus on the SEPs and their time series and energy spectrum to quantify probabilities of launch go/no-go. The SEPs originate from solar particle events (SPEs) that are associated with a solar flare and/or a coronal mass ejection (CME). These events are difficult to predict. Recent work has been done on these prediction techniques. The Geostarionary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) has been observing SEPs for decades. The greater than 10 megaelectronvolt proton flux is shown in Figure 2 since 1986. The SEPs are influenced by the 11-year solar cycle and typically come from active regions on the Sun.