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High Fidelity Collision Probabilities Estimated Using Brute Force Monte Carlo SimulationsThe NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis team has implemented new software to estimate the probability of collision (P (sub c)) for Earth-orbiting satellites. The algorithm employs a brute force Monte Carlo (BFMC) method which differs from most other methods because it uses orbital states and covariances propagated from their orbit determination epoch times using the full set of Astrodynamics Support Workstation higher order theory models, including the High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model. This paper de-scribes the BFMC algorithm, presents comparisons of BFMC P (sub c) estimates to those calculated using other methods, and discusses the implications for conjunction risk assessment.
Document ID
20180006154
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Conference Paper
Authors
Hall, Doyle T.
(Omitron, Inc. Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Casali, Stephen J.
(Omitron, Inc. Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Johnson, Lauren C.
(Omitron, Inc. Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Skrehart, Brent B.
(Omitron, Inc. Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Baars, Luis G.
(Omitron, Inc. Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Date Acquired
October 9, 2018
Publication Date
August 19, 2018
Subject Category
Space Communications, Spacecraft Communications, Command And Tracking
Report/Patent Number
GSFC-E-DAA-TN58551
AAS 18-244
Meeting Information
Meeting: AAS/AIAA Astrodynamics Specialist Conference
Location: Snowbird, UT
Country: United States
Start Date: August 19, 2018
End Date: August 23, 2018
Sponsors: American Inst. of Aeronautics and Astronautics, American Astronomical Society
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Public Use Permitted.
Keywords
Probabilities
Monte Carlo
Collision
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