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Synthesizing a New Launch Vehicle Failure Probability Based on Historical Flight DataNew launch vehicles have historically had significantly higher failure rates in early flights than what has been predicted using Probabilistic Risk Assessment - PRA. This is because PRAs typically model a mature vehicle where a significant portion of the early failure probability contributors have been eliminated due to testing and improvements after actual field operation. To capture a more accurate early flight failure probability estimate, this paper develops a method that estimates ascent failure probability starting with the first flight based on historical launch vehicle records. With new launch vehicles being developed, such as the Space Launch System - SLS, a PRA model must be extended to cover early flight failure probability contributions that are either not covered in the mature-vehicle PRA or are underestimated. These failure probability contributions include design errors, quality control deficiencies, installation errors, and environmental impacts. There are also failure dependencies due to systemic errors that still exist due to limited entire-system testing.
Document ID
20180006828
Acquisition Source
Johnson Space Center
Document Type
Conference Paper
Authors
Cross, Robert B.
(NASA Johnson Space Center Houston, TX, United States)
Vesely, William E.
(NASA Headquarters Washington, DC United States)
Date Acquired
October 25, 2018
Publication Date
September 16, 2018
Subject Category
Launch Vehicles And Launch Operations
Report/Patent Number
JSC-E-DAA-TN54016
Meeting Information
Meeting: Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (PSAM) 14
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Country: United States
Start Date: September 16, 2018
End Date: September 21, 2018
Sponsors: International Association for PSAM
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Public Use Permitted.
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