Synthesizing a New Launch Vehicle Failure Probability Based on Historical Flight DataNew launch vehicles have historically had significantly higher failure probabilities in early flights than what has been predicted using Probabilistic Risk Assessment. Work on a new methodology originally started with ARES I-X and the Common Standards Working Group (CSWG) for range safety applications. CSWG consists of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), Air Force, and NASA. Historical launch vehicle data was viewed as the best predictor of success/failure for launches of new vehicles. A launch vehicle database was developed that includes all launches from 1980-2017 (both US and foreign). Entries to the database include: Vehicle by model type; Launch dates; Failure description; Failure Result (Loss Of Vehicle (LOV)/Loss Of Mission (LOM); Failure cause (when available); Vehicle designs (stages/engines/etc.)
Document ID
20180006947
Acquisition Source
Johnson Space Center
Document Type
Presentation
Authors
Cross, Bob (NASA Johnson Space Center Houston, TX, United States)
Vesely, William (Retired)
Date Acquired
October 25, 2018
Publication Date
September 16, 2018
Subject Category
Launch Vehicles And Launch OperationsQuality Assurance And Reliability
IDRelationTitle20180006828See AlsoSynthesizing a New Launch Vehicle Failure Probability Based on Historical Flight Data20180006828See AlsoSynthesizing a New Launch Vehicle Failure Probability Based on Historical Flight Data