Analyzing the Relationship between Tracking and Covariance for Satellite Collision Avoidance

This presentation will display statistical analysis performed with over 150,000 Conjunction Data Messages (CDMs) received for the Earth Observing System (EOS) Aqua, Aura and Terra satellites within the three year period of March 2015 through February 2018. The analysis performed demonstrates the relationship between the covariance of a secondary object and the amount of tracks it receives, as a function of Time to Closest Approach (TCA). The examination indicates that higher tracking frequencies result in lower uncertainties inclusively from the time the data is screened up until TCA. Further investigation displays the impacts of how additional observations of secondary objects lower their position uncertainties and what period of time prior to TCA convergence of the covariance can be expected depending on how well the objects are tracked. Data points from several recent EOS High Interest Events (HIEs) are used to exemplify this analysis.