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Effect of Latitude Bias in Entry Angle on Ground Casualty Risk from Naturally Decaying Space ObjectsAn improvement to the long-term estimation of ground casualties from naturally decaying space objects is the refinement to the distribution of entry angle at the entry interface as a function of latitude. Previous analyses were based on an assumed "small angle," typically -0.1°, and entry interface at the equator. This study expands on work by Bacon and Matney that indicated there is significant latitude bias in the location of reentries, compared to prior assumptions of equal temporal probability. A new model has been developed, which describes the distribution of entry angle as a function of orbital inclination and argument of latitude. This model has been used to generate inputs for ODPO’s certified reentry survivability software, Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool (ORSAT). These new results are compared with the prior standard model to assess the magnitude of the effects on reentry casualty risk.
Document ID
Acquisition Source
Johnson Space Center
Document Type
Conference Paper
Ostrom, Chris L.
(Jacobs Technology, Inc. Houston, TX, United States)
Smith, Andrew N.
(NASA Johnson Space Center Houston, TX, United States)
Date Acquired
May 17, 2019
Publication Date
May 15, 2019
Subject Category
Space Transportation And Safety
Report/Patent Number
Meeting Information
Meeting: IAASS International Association for the Advancement of Space Safety Conference
Location: El Segundo, CA
Country: United States
Start Date: May 15, 2019
End Date: May 17, 2019
Sponsors: International Association for the Advancement of Space Safety
Funding Number(s)
Distribution Limits
Public Use Permitted.
Technical Review
Single Expert
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