A simulation model for probabilistic analysis of Space Shuttle abort modes

A simulation model which was developed to provide a probabilistic analysis tool to study the various space transportation system abort mode situations is presented. The simulation model is based on Monte Carlo simulation of an event-tree diagram which accounts for events during the space transportation system's ascent and its abort modes. The simulation model considers just the propulsion elements of the shuttle system (i.e., external tank, main engines, and solid boosters). The model was developed to provide a better understanding of the probability of occurrence and successful completion of abort modes during the vehicle's ascent. The results of the simulation runs discussed are for demonstration purposes only, they are not official NASA probability estimates.