Prediction of Earth rotation and polar motion

Based on the analysis of the polar motion behavior, the possibility of predicting polar motion up to one year in advance was found. Comparing these predicted polar coordinates with the observed ones (smoothed), the root mean square (rms) of the differences is about 0.02 seconds. The differences of the relative polar motion are much smaller. For any time interval of 20 to 30 days throughout the whole year, the rms of the relative polar motion differences is about 0.01 second. Compared with the best available VLBI results (from 1977 to 1980), the rms of pred. to obs. is 0.013 seconds, and the relative rms (for time intervals less than two months) is 0.008 seconds (here the observed data is unsmoothed). It appears that 80 to 90% of the polar motion is composed of the stable, predictable Chandler and annual terms. The UT1-UTC has more complicated changes than polar motion making it difficult to find a satisfactory method of long term prediction. So far the rms prediction error is 0.0023 s for up to 30 days.