Prediction of three sigma maximum dispersed density for aerospace applications

Free molecular heating (FMH) is caused by the transfer of energy during collisions between the upper atmosphere molecules and a space vehicle. The dispersed free molecular heating on a surface is an important constraint for space vehicle thermal analyses since it can be a significant source of heating. To reduce FMH to a spacecraft, the parking orbit is often designed to a higher altitude at the expense of payload capability. Dispersed FMH is a function of both space vehicle velocity and atmospheric density, however, the space vehicle velocity variations are insignificant when compared to the atmospheric density variations. The density of the upper atmosphere molecules is a function of altitude, but also varies with other environmental factors, such as solar activity, geomagnetic activity, location, and time. A method has been developed to predict three sigma maximum dispersed density for up to 15 years into the future. This method uses a state-of-the-art atmospheric density code, MSIS 86, along with 50 years of solar data, NASA and NOAA solar activity predictions for the next 15 years, and an Aerospace Corporation correlation to account for density code inaccuracies to generate dispersed maximum density ratios denoted as 'K-factors'. The calculated K-factors can be used on a mission unique basis to calculate dispersed density, and hence dispersed free molecular heating rates. These more accurate K-factors can allow lower parking orbit altitudes, resulting in increased payload capability.