On the Hiatus in the Acceleration of Tropical Upwelling Since the Beginning of the 21st Century

Chemistry-climate models predict an acceleration of the upwelling branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation as a consequence of increasing global surface temperatures, resulting from elevated levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases. The observed decrease of ozone in the tropical lower stratosphere during the last decades of the 20th century is consistent with the anticipated acceleration of upwelling. However, more recent satellite observations of ozone reveal that this decrease has unexpectedly stopped in the first decade of the 21st century, challenging the implicit assumption of a continuous acceleration of tropical upwelling. In this study we use three decades of chemistry transport-model simulations (1980-2013) to investigate this phenomenon and resolve this apparent contradiction. Our model reproduces the observed tropical lower stratosphere ozone record, showing a significant decrease in the early period followed by a statistically robust trend-change after 2002. We demonstrate that this trend-change is correlated with corresponding changes in the vertical transport and conclude that a hiatus in the acceleration of tropical upwelling occurred during the last decade.