Looking Back and Looking Forward: Reprising the Promise and Predicting the Future of Formation Flying and Spaceborne GPS Navigation Systems

A retrospective consideration of two 15-year old Guidance, Navigation and Control (GN&C) technology 'vision' predictions will be the focus of this paper. A look back analysis and critique of these late 1990s technology roadmaps out-lining the future vision, for two then nascent, but rapidly emerging, GN&C technologies will be performed. Specifically, these two GN&C technologies were: 1) multi-spacecraft formation flying and 2) the spaceborne use and exploitation of global positioning system (GPS) signals to enable formation flying. This paper reprises the promise of formation flying and spaceborne GPS as depicted in the cited 1999 and 1998 papers. It will discuss what happened to cause that promise to be mostly unfulfilled and the reasons why the envisioned formation flying dream has yet to become a reality. The recent technology trends over the past few years will then be identified and a renewed government interest in spacecraft formation flying/cluster flight will be highlighted. The authors will conclude with a reality-tempered perspective, 15 years after the initial technology roadmaps were published, predicting a promising future of spacecraft formation flying technology development over the next decade.