Prediction of Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Reaction Wheel Assembly Angular Momentum Using Regression Analysis

This study determines the feasibility of creating a tool that can accurately predict Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) reaction wheel assembly (RWA) angular momentum, weeks or even months into the future. LRO is a three-axis stabilized spacecraft that was launched on June 18, 2009. While typically nadir-pointing, LRO conducts many types of slews to enable novel science collection. Momentum unloads have historically been performed approximately once every two weeks with the goal of maintaining system total angular momentum below 70 Nms; however flight experience shows the models developed before launch are overly conservative, with many momentum unloads being performed before system angular momentum surpasses 50 Nms. A more accurate model of RWA angular momentum growth would improve momentum unload scheduling and decrease the frequency of these unloads. Since some LRO instruments must be deactivated during momentum unloads and in the case of one instrument, decontaminated for 24 hours there after a decrease in the frequency of unloads increases science collection. This study develops a new model to predict LRO RWA angular momentum. Regression analysis of data from October 2014 to October 2015 was used to develop relationships between solar beta angle, slew specifications, and RWA angular momentum growth. The resulting model predicts RWA angular momentum using input solar beta angle and mission schedule data. This model was used to predict RWA angular momentum from October 2013 to October 2014. Predictions agree well with telemetry; of the 23 momentum unloads performed from October 2013 to October 2014, the mean and median magnitude of the RWA total angular momentum prediction error at the time of the momentum unloads were 3.7 and 2.7 Nms, respectively. The magnitude of the largest RWA total angular momentum prediction error was 10.6 Nms. Development of a tool that uses the models presented herein is currently underway.