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Inter-Model Warming Projection Spread: Inherited Traits from Control Climate DiversitySince Chaney’s report, the range of global warming projections in response to a doubling of CO2—from 1.5 °C to 4.5 °C or greater—remains largely unscathed by the onslaught of new scientific insights. Conventional thinking regards inter-model differences in climate feedbacks as the sole cause of the warming projection spread (WPS). Our findings shed new light on this issue indicating that climate feedbacks inherit diversity from the model control climate, besides the models’ intrinsic climate feedback diversity that is independent of the control climate state. Regulated by the control climate ice coverage, models with greater (lesser) ice coverage generally possess a colder (warmer) and drier (moister) climate, exhibit a stronger (weaker) ice-albedo feedback, and experience greater (weaker) warming. The water vapor feedback also inherits diversity from the control climate but in an opposite way: a colder (warmer) climate generally possesses a weaker (stronger) water vapor feedback, yielding a weaker (stronger) warming. These inherited traits influence the warming response in opposing manners, resulting in a weaker correlation between the WPS and control climate diversity. Our study indicates that a better understanding of the diversity amongst climate model mean states may help to narrow down the range of global warming projections.
Document ID
20190025867
Acquisition Source
Langley Research Center
Document Type
Accepted Manuscript (Version with final changes)
Authors
Xiaoming Hu
(Sun Yat-sen University Guangzhou, Guangdong, China)
Patrick C Taylor
(Langley Research Center Hampton, Virginia, United States)
Ming Cai
(Florida State University Tallahassee, Florida, United States)
Song Yang
(Kansas State University Manhattan, Kansas, United States)
Yi Deng
(Georgia Institute of Technology Atlanta, Georgia, United States)
Sergio Sejas
(Science Systems and Applications (United States) Lanham, Maryland, United States)
Date Acquired
June 11, 2019
Publication Date
June 27, 2017
Publication Information
Publication: Scientific Reports
Publisher: Nature Research
Volume: 7
Issue Publication Date: January 1, 2017
e-ISSN: 2045-2322
Subject Category
Meteorology And Climatology
Report/Patent Number
NF1676L-26987
Funding Number(s)
WBS: 509496.02.08.06.93
PROJECT: SCMD-EarthScienceSystem_509496
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Public Use Permitted.
Keywords
Climate feedbacks
Global warming projection uncertainty
Control climate state spread
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