Effects of Volcanic Emissions on Clouds During Kilauea Degassing Events

Aerosols influence Earth’s radiative balance directly by scattering and absorbing solar radiation, and indirectly by modifying cloud properties. Current scientific consensus indicates that these effects may offset as much as 50% of the warming due to greenhouse gas emissions. Over the last two decades dramatic volcanic events in Hawaii have produced localized aerosol emissions in otherwise clean environments. These are “natural experiments" where the aerosol effects on clouds and climate can be partitioned from other effects like meteorology and industrial emissions. Therefore, these events provide a unique opportunity to learn about possible effects of aerosol pollution on climate through cloud modification. In this work we use the version 5 of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) and satellite retrievals to analyze and evaluate the strength of the aerosol indirect effect on liquid and ice clouds during the 2008 and 2018 Kilauea degassing events using different emissions scenarios (0, 1, and 5 actual emissions). Our results suggested that the 2018 event was stronger and more regionally significant with respect to cloud formation process for both liquid and ice clouds, while the 2008 affected local liquid clouds only. GEOS-5 predictions reproduced spatial patterns for all parameters, however better precision could be gained by using more accurate plume parameters for height and ash concentration.