Parametric Cost Estimates of Four 20 Ton Payload Mars EDL Vehicle Concepts

Cost is one of the biggest obstacles to sending humans to Mars. Many studies have examined various vehicles and/or technologies which could be used to send humans to Mars. However, nearly all of these studies have either ignored cost or have used the mass of the vehicles as a surrogate for cost. This work presents parametric cost estimates of four Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing vehicle concepts capable of landing 20 tons of payload on the surface of Mars. The concepts are the Co-Optimization Blunt-body Re-entry Analysis-Mid lift to drag ratio Rigid Vehicle (Cobra–MRV), Adaptive Deployable Entry and Placement Technology (ADEPT), Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator (HIAD), and Capsule concepts. Two variants of the HIAD concept are studied, one with a single HIAD heatshield and one with two HIADs. The study presents the development and production cost of each vehicle and the total cost to build five flight units and fifteen flight units. Five flight units is representative of a single mission, or a "Flags and Footprints" style campaign, whereas fifteen flight units is representative of multiple missions going to multiple sites on Mars. All costs presented in this work are normalized to the average of the first unit production cost of the lander concepts. There is a large amount of uncertainty both in the design of the vehicles and the cost of the vehicles and it is impossible to claim with certainty which vehicle will cost the least. However, it is likely that the total cost to produce five flight units will be in the following ranking from least costly to most costly, Single HIAD, Capsule, Dual HIAD, Cobra, ADEPT. The ranking for fifteen units is similar but with the positions of the Dual HIAD and Cobra reversed. This study only considers the cost of the entry vehicle and does not take into account the effect of the entry vehicle’s mass on the cost of the in-space propulsion stage or launch vehicle.