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Comparison of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Estimates From Slab Ocean, 150‐Year, and Longer SimulationsWe compare equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) estimates from pairs of long (≥ 800‐year) control and abruptly quadrupled CO2 simulations with shorter (150, 300 year) coupled atmosphere‐ocean simulations and Slab Ocean Models (SOM). Consistent with previous work, ECS estimates from shorter coupled simulations based on annual averages for years 1‐150 underestimate those from SOM (‐8% ± 13%) and long (‐14% ± 8%) simulations. Analysis of only years 21‐150 improved agreement with SOM (‐2% ± 14%) and long (‐8% ± 10%) estimates. Use of pentadal averages for years 51‐150 results in improved agreement with long simulations (‐4% ± 11%). While ECS estimates from current generation US models based on SOM and coupled annual averages of years 1‐150 range from 2.6°C to 5.3°C, estimates based longer simulations of the same models range from 3.2°C to 7.0°C. Such variations between methods argues for caution in comparison and interpretation of ECS estimates across models.
Document ID
20205005003
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Accepted Manuscript (Version with final changes)
External Source(s)
Authors
John P. Dunn ORCID
(METECS Washington D.C., District of Columbia, United States)
Michael Winton ORCID
(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Washington D.C., District of Columbia, United States)
Julio Bacmeister ORCID
(NORTHWEST RESEARCH ASSOC INC. Boulder, Colorado, United States)
Gokhan Danabasoglu ORCID
(National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado, United States)
Andrew Gettelman ORCID
(National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado, United States)
Jean-Christophe Golaz ORCID
(Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Livermore, California, United States)
Cecile Hannay ORCID
(National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado, United States)
Gavin A. Schmidt ORCID
(Goddard Institute for Space Studies New York, New York, United States)
John P. Krasting ORCID
(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Washington D.C., District of Columbia, United States)
L. Ruby Leung ORCID
(Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Richland, Washington, United States)
Larissa Nazarenko ORCID
(Columbia University New York, New York, United States)
Lori T. Sentman ORCID
(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Washington D.C., District of Columbia, United States)
Ronald J. Stouffer ORCID
(University of Arizona Tucson, Arizona, United States)
Jonathan D. Wolfe ORCID
(Los Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos, New Mexico, United States)
Date Acquired
July 24, 2020
Publication Date
July 23, 2020
Publication Information
Publication: Geophysical Research Letters
Publisher: Wiley / American Geophysical Union
Volume: 47
Issue: 16
Issue Publication Date: August 28, 2020
ISSN: 0094-8276
e-ISSN: 944-8007
Subject Category
Meteorology And Climatology
Funding Number(s)
WBS: 509496.02.08.09.58
CONTRACT_GRANT: U.S. NSF 1852977
CONTRACT_GRANT: DE-AC52-07NA27344
CONTRACT_GRANT: DE-AC05- 76RL01830
CONTRACT_GRANT: 89233218CNA000001
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Use by or on behalf of the US Gov. Permitted.
Technical Review
External Peer Committee
Keywords
Climate sensitivity
Climate model
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