Intent Modeling and Intent Conflict Probability Calculation for Operations in Upper Class E Airspace

This work presents probabilistic intent models for two typical vehicles in ETM operational environment. Several methods, including analytical methods for approximated solutions and a
numerical method for exact solution, are presented and applied to compute the intent conflict probability for ETM operations. A comparison of these methods will be conducted in the final
paper. Furthermore, simulations will be performed to verify the probabilistic intent model and verify the results of intent conflict probability from different methods.