Expectation vs. Reality: The Sunrise Problem Applied to Probabilistic Risk Assessment

The Sunrise Problem is succinctly stated as a question: “what is the probability that the sun will rise tomorrow?” Attempts to answer this seemingly simple question reveal unexpected incongruities between statistical/probabilistic estimates and “real-world” expectations. Rather than being a purely philosophical problem, similar incongruities can be found in reliability and probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) analyses. These differences between statistical predictions and demonstrated reliability can result in analysis shortcomings that should be addressed and resolved. This presentation will begin by discussing the nature of the Sunrise Problem and how it applies to PRA and reliability. Examples of the Sunrise Problem in a PRA estimate will also be included, along with tips to identify and resolve the shortcomings that result from these anomalous situations.