Pairing a GCM and Bayesian Framework to Predict Habitable Zone Evolution

In the near-future, new space telescopes like JWST, LUVOIR, and HabEx will begin attempting to explore the properties of atmospheres of potentially habitable planets. This will require a significant amount of time and resources for even a single planet, which makes it essential to prioritize observations by those most-likely to have detectable life. Here we present a statistical method to estimate the probabilities that specific exoplanets have been continuously in the habitable zone of their host stars for more than 2 billion years, the approximate time it took life on Earth to significantly increase the oxygen content of the atmosphere. We introduce the use of statistics of an ensemble of 3D planetary general circulation models to estimate these probabilities, replacing prior 1D model estimates.