Quantification of Discharge-Specific Effects on Dissolved Organic Matter Export From Major Arctic Rivers From 1982 Through 2019

Long-term increases in Arctic river discharge have been well documented, and observations in the six largest Arctic rivers show strong positive correlations between dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration, river discharge, and chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) content. Here, observations of DOC and CDOM collected from 2009-2019 by the Arctic Great Rivers Observatory were used to estimate chromophoric DOC (CDOC) concentrations in the Kolyma, Lena, Mackenzie, Ob’, Yenisey, and Yukon Rivers. All rivers but the Mackenzie showed significant positive correlations between annual watershed runoff and the proportion of the DOC that is chromophoric. Historical estimates of DOC and CDOC export were calculated for 1982-2019 by extrapolating the DOC and CDOC concentration – discharge relationships from 2009-2019 as a hindcast modeled estimate. For the six rivers combined, modeled DOC and CDOC export increased, but CDOC increased faster than total DOC. The Lena and Ob’ Rivers showed significant increases in DOC export individually, with annual trends of 39.1 and 20.4 Gg C yr-1 respectively. November-April (winter) DOC and CDOC export increased in all rivers but the Yenisey, with the hindcast winter Kolyma export increasing by more than 20% per decade. There were no significant trends in discharge or associated DOC and CDOC fluxes during the observational period from 2009-2019; only when hindcasted values driven by changes in river discharge were analyzed did trends in DOC and CDOC emerge. This demonstrates how shifting seasonal distributions and increases in discharge can drive changes in DOC and CDOC concentrations and export, independent of other environmental factors.