Safety Benefit Analysis of Conformance Monitoring for Situation Awareness in UTM

This work presents an analytical approach to address situations in drone operations when strategic coordination alone cannot ensure safety, requiring support from the Conformance Monitoring for Situation Awareness service and potentially other deconfliction services. This study focuses on evaluating the impact of off-nominal operations on both UA-to-UA collision risk and ground injury risk. It first establishes a relationship between the likelihood of off-nominal flights and the effectiveness of strategic coordination. The analysis then derives operational conditions where strategic coordination alone is insufficient to meet target safety requirements, particularly when the likelihood of off-nominal operations exceeds a certain threshold. The results indicate that higher operational tempo or density requires a lower likelihood of offnominal operations for strategic coordination to remain effective and meet safety targets. These findings provide quantitative operational thresholds for when CMSA services are necessary. This work contributes to the safety case for both strategic coordination and CMSA services, offering analysis on when CMSA should be employed to support strategic coordination in achieving the desired safety levels. It also establishes a framework for incorporating other deconfliction services in future safety case analyses.