Cumulative Distribution Overlap Technique for Artemis Mission Public Entry Risk Assessment

The Artemis missions use a skip-entry profile to accomplish a recovery near the western US coastline, however, the service module debris must still be disposed of safely. For certain contingency return scenarios, the expected dispersed entry profile is biased from the well-analyzed corridor. A novel method is presented for assessing the Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) of these biased results to ensure they do not contribute additional probabilistic risk to the public. More specifically, the weight of the flight path angle dispersion "tail" of the CDF needs to remain below the well-assessed region. The details of how this method was actually used to screen and plan entry profiles for specific launch windows during the Artemis I mission are shown. This method has potential applicability in other problems where a biased distribution needs to be assessed against a well-defined "core" region.