Monitoring Atmospheric CO2 From Space: Challenge & Approach

Atmospheric CO2 is the key radiative forcing for the Earth's climate and may contribute a major part of the Earth's warming during the past 150 years. Advanced knowledge on the CO2 distributions and changes can lead considerable model improvements in predictions of the Earth's future climate. Large uncertainties in the predictions have been found for decades owing to limited CO2 observations. To obtain precise measurements of atmospheric CO2, certain challenges have to be overcome. For an example, global annual means of the CO2 are rather stable, but, have a very small increasing trend that is significant for multi-decadal long-term climate. At short time scales (a second to a few hours), regional and subcontinental gradients in the CO2 concentration are very small and only in an order of a few parts per million (ppm) compared to the mean atmospheric CO2 concentration of about 400 ppm, which requires atmospheric CO2 space monitoring systems with extremely high accuracy and precision (about 0.5 ppm or 0.125%) in spatiotemporal scales around 75 km and 10-s. It also requires a decadal-scale system stability. Furthermore, rapid changes in high latitude environments such as melting ice, snow and frozen soil, persistent thin cirrus clouds in Amazon and other tropical areas, and harsh weather conditions over Southern Ocean all increase difficulties in satellite atmospheric CO2 observations. Space lidar approaches using Integrated Path Differential Absorption (IPDA) technique are considered to be capable of obtaining precise CO2 measurements and, thus, have been proposed by various studies including the 2007 Decadal Survey (DS) of the U.S. National Research Council. This study considers to use the Intensity-Modulated Continuous-Wave (IM-CW) lidar to monitor global atmospheric CO2 distribution and variability from space. Development and demonstration of space lidar for atmospheric CO2 measurements have been made through joint adventure of NASA Langley Research Center and Exelis, Inc. As prototype space IPDA lidars, airborne laser absorption lidar systems operating in 1.57 CO2 absorption band have been developed and tested through lab, ground-based range, and flight campaigns. Very encouraging results have been obtained. The signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) for clear sky IPDA measurements of CO2 differential absorption optical depth (DAOD) for a 10-s integration over vegetated areas with about 10 km range was found to be as high as 1300, resulting in an error 0.077% or equivalent CO2 mixing ratio (XCO2) column precision of ~0.3 ppm. Precise range measurements using the IM-CW lidar approach were also achieved, and the uncertainties have been shown to be at sub meter level. Based on the airborne lidar development, space lidar and atmospheric CO2 observations are simulated. It shows that with the IM-CW approach, accurate atmospheric CO2 measurements can be achieved from space, and a space mission such as that proposed by the DS will meet science goals of atmospheric CO2 monitoring.